China's economy
expanded faster than expected in the first quarter as higher government
infrastructure spending and a gravity-defying property boom helped boost
industrial output by the most in over two years.Growth
of 6.9 percent was the fastest in six quarters, with forecast-beating
March investment, retail sales and exports all suggesting the economy
may carry solid momentum into spring.
But
most analysts say the first quarter may be as good as it gets for China
this year, and worry Beijing is still relying too heavily on stimulus
and "old economy" growth drivers, primarily the steel industry and a
property market that is showing signs of overheating.
"The
Chinese government has a tendency to rely on infrastructure development
to sustain growth in the long term," economists at ANZ said in a note.
"The
question we need to ask is whether this investment-led model is
sustainable as the authorities have trouble taming credit. We need to
watch closely whether China’s top leadership will send a stronger signal
to tighten monetary policy shortly."
Even
as top officials vowed to crack down on debt risks, China's total
social financing, a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the
economy, reached a record 6.93 trillion yuan ($1 trillion) in the first
quarter -- roughly equivalent to the size of Mexico's economy.
At the same time, spending by the central and local governments rose 21 percent from a year earlier.
That
helped goose the pace of growth in the first quarter well above the
government's 2017 target of around 6.5 percent, and pipped economists'
forecasts of 6.8 percent year-on-year.
Such
a strong bolt from the gate could see Beijing once again meet its
annual growth target, even if activity starts to fade later in the year,
as many analysts widely expect.
"Main
indicators were better than expected...which laid a good foundation for
achieving the full-year growth goals," statistics spokesman Mao
Shengyong said at a news conference.
SAME OLD GROWTH DRIVERS?
Once
again, China's policymakers leaned on infrastructure and real estate
investment to drive expansion in the first quarter. Growth in both areas
has accelerated from last year and helped offset slightly weaker growth
in the services sector.
"Faster
growth in industrial output is the primary factor in the first quarter
surprise, and due mostly to higher value-added growth related to
supply-side consolidation in heavy industry," said Brian Jackson, China
economist at IHS Global Insight.
Real
estate investment also remained robust in the first quarter, expanding
by 9.1 percent on-year, and the pace of new construction quickened
despite intensifying government measures to cool soaring prices.
Most
analysts agree the heated property market poses the single biggest risk
to China's economic growth, but predict the cumulative weight of
property curbs will eventually temper activity, not produce an outright
crash.
"Sales have
started falling, which means tightening measures are starting to take
effect," said Shen Jianguang, an analyst at Mizuho Securities in Hong
Kong, noting that will start to drag on both the services and
construction sectors.
More
than two dozen cities announced new or additional property cooling
measures in March and early April, after curbs late last year appeared
to have little lasting effect.
Buoyed
by a near 12 percent increase in housing starts, China produced a
record amount of steel in March, Reuters data showed, though analysts
say warning signs are flashing.
Rising
inventory levels and recent falls in steel prices suggest output has
been growing faster than China's actual demand, raising worries of a
glut later in the year, which could heighten trade tensions with the
U.S. and its other major trading partners.
INCOME GROWTH PICKS UP
There were also positive signs on the consumer front in Monday's data dump.
After
slowing for five quarters, disposable income growth picked up to 7.0
percent in the first quarter, the fastest since the end of 2015.
March retail sales rebounded 10.9
percent on-year as consumers shelled out more for home appliances,
furniture and decorations for new homes.
Auto
sales also showed signs of recovering after weakening in the first two
months of the year after the government reduced subsidies on small cars.
Analysts are closely watching for signs that consumption is accounting for a greater share of China's economy, which would
not
only make growth more resilient and broader based but also reduce the
need for more debt-fueled stimulus and reliance on "smokestack"
industries.
FOCUS ON STABILITY, THEN REFORMS
Though policymakers
have pledged repeatedly to push reforms to head off financial risks and
asset bubbles, the government is seeking to keep the economy on an even
keel ahead of a major leadership transition in later this year.
China's
central bank has gingerly shifted to a tightening policy bias in recent
months, and is using more targeted measures to contain risks in the
financial system, after years of ultra-loose settings.
It
has bumped up interest rates on money market instruments and special
short- and medium-term loans several times already this year and further
modest increases are expected, especially if U.S. rates continue to
rise.
"I think China
should be directing the economy to slow down its growth in the long
term...but on the contrary, growth is accelerating," said Hidenobu
Tokuda, senior economist at Mizuho Research Institute in Tokyo.
"This
is good for now but it makes it difficult to see how China's economic
slowdown will land in the future. Uncertainties remain high."
(Reporting by Kevin Yao and Yawen Chen; Writing by Elias Glenn; Editing by Kim Coghill)


