May 4, 2015

What is the Saudi-led coalition's end game in Yemen?

The Saudi-led coalition continues to bomb Yemen daily, as fighting rages across the country
After one month of bombing and amid a severe humanitarian crisis in Yemen, Saudi Arabia announced on April 21 that its military goals in the country had been achieved, and a new operation, "Restoration of Hope", had begun. Since then, however, little has changed. The Saudi-led coalition continues to bomb Yemen daily, as fighting rages across the country. What is Saudi's end game in Yemen?

the Saudi-led coalition aimed to push back the Houthis’ and (former president Ali Abdullah) Saleh's ever-expanding consolidation of power. The simple fact was that politics necessitated it, and hence residents accepted the inevitability of this action.

The general mood started to change when it became clearly evident that the coalition lacked a general strategy. Akin to kicking a beehive, the coalition's campaign resulted in the Houthis taking far more hostile and aggressive steps than they ever dared before, expanding into more territories than when the coalition started its operation. The coalition's blockade of airports and seaports; the collateral damage from the air strikes, both to infrastructure and in terms of civilian casualties; the multiple battlefronts raging across Yemen; and the overall devastating impact of war on the local population, eventually led to the local buy-in rapidly evaporating.

When the coalition announced the end of Operation Decisive Storm and the commencement of a new operation named Restoration of Hope, the vast majority of emotionally and physically drained Yemenis prematurely celebrated. Unfortunately, the air strikes continued, and public dissent grew. The coalition's lack of a solid plan was now being starkly highlighted against the dangerously erratic and callous military actions. Furthermore, the realities on the ground for ordinary Yemenis have worsened dramatically since the bombing began.

When a new and younger generation took the helm in Saudi Arabia, a kingdom traditionally led by much older conservatives, we knew they would seek an opportunity to prove their worth. With Iran meddling in the kingdom's backyard, the golden opportunity presented itself for the new leadership to be tested and to win popular support through decisive action - action we sincerely, perhaps a little too naively, hoped would both propel the new Saudi leadership and safeguard both Yemen and Saudi Arabia's interests.

Now, more than a month into the war, the state's integrity is shaken to the core and the economy is in shambles. The coalition's initial rhetoric to "restore the legitimate government of Yemen" is now exceedingly focused on the "successful annulment of threats against [Saudi Arabia] and sending a strong message to Iran", with no clear endgame. Moreover, the coalition is dropping weapons and arming various factions in a country already awash with guns - meaning that with the right spark, the highly volatile environment falls into an explosive domino effect, where the worst is yet to come. Hence, many of us are learning to accept that we simply ended up getting an excessively "decisive" storm, which has disastrously acted as a catalyst, throwing the whole country into chaos as we brace for a Syria scenario on steroids. 

source: Aljazeera